User Guide

Betalytics is a research tool that allows users to made educated bets based on modelling outcomes of games. There are many ways to use the vast data provided on the site. Betalytics will continue to add tools to the site such as trends, match up data and player maps for customers to further research their preferred wagers.

Top Bets

Relying on the Top Bets page and placing all of those bets will be profitable long-term, but is not a best or recommended practice. The Top Bets page filters the recommended bets based on the grading system. It is a time-saving tool to identify which bets are likely to be most profitable. Further researching the bets on the Top Bets page and selecting which bets are best based on trends, match up, history against opponent, weather conditions, target share, percentage of shots taken relative to team, and playing time provides important anecdotal data points that will further educate your bet.

Example: A player’s receiving yards may be projected over and have 5 stars. If that player is playing in a snow storm, matched up against a top safety or has had poor success against their matchup in the past, the anecdotal research would suggest that may not be the strongest wager available.

Understanding Projected Score

Soccer

The Projected Score is used for two main markets: Correct Score and Both Teams to Score. If the sum of the teams projected totals exceeds the listed line by 0.3 or more, that is a bet worth more research. If both teams have a Projected Score of more than 0.8, and have been scoring in previous games, Both Teams to Score - Yes is a good bet, provided the line is longer than -150. If the score is 0.7 or more, looking for odds around -125 is best for value. If a team has a projected score of less than 0.7, Both Teams to Score - No is the better bet. If a Projected Score reads 0.81 - 2.21, there is likely to be signficant value on a 1-2 “Correct Score” bet. If Projected Score is 0.64 - 0.71 and both teams have struggled to score, a 0-0 draw has value, as does Both Teams to Score - No.

Using the Projected Score for Draw bets is another best practice. Lecce v Monza had a projected score of 0.64 - 0.67. Conventional wisdom says the smart bet would be Both Teams to Score - No. However, given how close the porjected scores are to each other, there is grater value in betting on the Draw (+210) or the Correct Score of 0-0 (+340) than Both Teams to Score - No (-182). The first two bets are riskier, and should only be 0.5 Unit bets or less, but hold the most value based on the Projected Score.

Hockey

Projected Score can be used in many different ways. If the Projected Score is quite similiar (2.89 - 2.74), betting on the game to go to Overtime can be quite proftiable, usually +300. If the score has a gap of more than 1.3 (4.6 - 3.2) and the Moneyline projection is above 60%, look for a Spread Bet (-1.5). If it is more than 1, but less than 1.3, a 60 minute/3-way Moneyline bet may be better value than the Moneyline, given that NHL Moneylines can reach -300 ranges. Teams who were -250 or more to win, have won 67% of their games in regulation in the last 3 seasons. If a team has very short odds, it is better to pair them with another heavy favorite or take them straight on the 60 minute/3-way moneyline to reduce the “juice.” If a team is playing their backup goalie, as top teams usually play their back up goalies in these types of match ups, that is a red flag and you should consider betting the underdog if they are in a positive trend. If not, it is better to not bet the result, given the juice and randomness that is associated with hockey.

Basketball

Projected Score for basketball can be used for Game Total, Team Totals, Spread and can provide insight on potential blowouts. Games with Projected Scores that are greater than 12 points should be considered “blowout risks.” This can impact player projections as starters have signficantly less playing time in the fourth quarter in blowout situations. If a player is projected to go under their line and the game is a potential blowout, that is helpful anecdotal research. It is an opportunity to find value on bench players who would benefit from extra playing time.

If the Projected Score is 3 points above or below the listed line, that is a line worth targeting for totals. The projected can also be usd for “Both Teams to Score X Points.” Furthermore, teams projected to score 115+ points are targets for “Team to Score 100+ Points in First 3 Quarters,” particularly against poor defensive teams or if both teams have a high pace of play. The Spread Bet grading accounts for more than the projection. As a rule of thumb, a projected spread difference of 3 or more merits more research. If the research matches the lean, it is worthy of consideration. Regardless of the grade attributed to the Moneyline, Spread and Total, look at the Projected Score to ensure it falls in the recommended range. Some bets will have higher grades because of edge or trend, it is important to follow the 3 points recommendation.

Baseball

Only the Game Total Projected Score will be displayed on the game card. No First Inning or F5 total will appear on the Game Projection cards. The Projected Scores can be used for bets such as Correct Score, Both Teams to Score X Runs and Game Total. It is important to consider weather conditions as they may vastly impact ball flight. Swish Analytics is recommeneded as it has the most up to date and accurate weather reports for each game.

Player Projections

The most important anecdotal research areas to consider for player projections are match up and player situations. Player injuries are key to understanding both.

Injuries

Injuries can have a significant impact on the playing time of others, game schemes and oppposing match up. If a player is out of the lineup for basketball, the impact will be felt across the starters. When Collin Sexton does not play, Isaiah Collier has his hit assist prop in every game. In hockey, a key player pinjury forces a player lower in the lineup to move up and receive increased ice time. If the injured player is part of the powerplay, it requires a scheme change which will impact how the unit attacks and who is more likely to get shots and points. For football, injuries can have significant impact on scheme. Researching how a specfic player impacts a team’s scheme and who sees an increased/decreased role is important to determining if the bet has value. If the prop is over and the anecdotal research suggests the injury will have a positive on the player’s performance, it is worth consideration and vice versa. However, if the prop is projected for one side and the anecdotal research suggests the opposite, it is a good bet to stay away from.

Consider the injuries of the opponent as well. If the player is playing against a different match up because the defender is missing, that should be a target. The drop off from a top safety to back ups have led to major games from some receivers. If a hockey team is missing a key defender, consider which offensive players on their opponent stand to benefit from their abscence.

Match Up

Match ups are critical betting information. Looking at how the target player has performed against similar defences or players provides important insight into how the player may perform in their upcoming game. Targeting players with previous success in the match up or a similar match up, that are projected to go over, is a profitable strategy. Targeting player unders when the defensive scheme or match up suggests can also be profitable. Darius Slay draws the top match up against WR1 for Philadelphia and kept WR1 under their lines for more than one month. If the opposing WR1 has an under projection and is expected to draw the Slay match up, he should be an Under bet, as we saw with Terry Mclaurin in the 11/14/2024 matchup. When a hockey player is moved up the lineup, he will play with better players, have more ice time and therefore, have more opportunities to generate shots and points. If a player is moved down the line up, they will have an easier match up, but less ice time to generate. If a player is matched up against a team that supresses shots and does not give up scoring opportunities, you should proceed with caution in betting any “over” bets unless the trend for that specific player is significant.

The Revenge Narrative is a popular one amongst the community. It is more important to consider how that playr fairs against the type of defence their former team is expected to play. While the player will be motivated to perform well, the coach will know how to scheme against that player and it should not always be an automatic bet. Consider how the player fits within the scheme of his current team, the scoring opportunities they will have and how they have performed against their former team in the past (if they have). If the projection lines up with match up, schemes and narrative, then it is likely a bet worth taking.

The Player vs. Player Narrative is another to monitor. If a hockey player has success against a particular goalie, or in a particular venue, that is something worth researching. Mike Evans vs. Marshon Lattimore is a famous example of football players matching up and the team taking advantage of the emotional match up. All of this is anecdotal data, as there is no tangible proof of increased performance over a major sample size, but it is a part of the research required when betting player props.